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66% chance of an El Niño — a big one — in 2014: NOAA
Scientists now are closely watching the Pacific and will know with more certainty in two or three months what the winter should bring. For now, all the trend lines are showing a greater likelihood of a...
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Why the experts think the boy child will come this year
We should be properly skeptical of any image I suppose, especially in these days of Photoshop, and when an image purports to describe a before and after in colors demand to know even how the the...
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El Nino — the Lazarus of 2014?
At the last minute for an El Nino this year, a Kelvin wave rises from the data:
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El Niño 2014 October forecast: Glass little over half full
NOAA released its October outlook for our winter, based on ocean temperatures, and continues to find a 60-65% chance of the appearance of the boychick. Here's my fave set of graphs today, from another...
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NASA vs. NOAA: battle of the winter forecast charts
The headline exaggerates, of course, but doesn't in fact mislead. Here's a graph of a NASA climate model, depicting a forecast of precipitation in the U.S. for the next winter. Colors tell the story....
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The California drought: Will it rain this winter in SoCal?
It's a big question. Talk to anyone who works on the land in Southern California and you'll hear discussion of El Niño, rain, winter, drought, scientists who can't agree– and so on. I set out to get...
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Not again! Meteorologists abuzz about El Nino in drought
Last year at this time a huge wave of heat was detected propagating as the scientists say through surface waters from east to west across the Pacific. Ultimately a series of such "Kelvin waves" went...
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FORECAST: GODZILLA
Here’s the image that inspired scientist Bill Patzert to call a particularly epic El Niño “Godzilla.” See that monster lurking off Central America? With the jagged...
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FORECAST: GODZILLA (take two)
Another paper published my FORECAST: GODZILLA story, which includes an amusing history of the “meme” from the weather reporter’s friend at JPL/NASA, Bill Patzert. Don’t usually repost my reporting, but...
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Waiting for El Nino in SoCal in January 2015
Although we have had a reported 69% of normal rainfall in Los Angeles, to date in this year of an alleged El Nino has been on the dry side in Ventura County: with a modest 4.74 inches to date in Upper...
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